NHL Picks, Wed 1/15. This season: + $12 820 (234-189-42)

[Mathemagician]

Today’s investments:

Chicago ML +125 / estimate -106 / wager $300
Washington -0.5 -132 / estimate -156 / wager $300

Chi - Det Under 5 -105 / estimate -159 / wager $100
Atl - Mon Over 6 +116 / estimate -111 / wager $100


Click here for Mathemagician’s detailed track record and more information for NHL 2002-2003

-----------------------
Mathemagician’s analysis is based on many years experience of odds making in NHL and other sports. Methods used in odds making process include careful pre-season analysis, continuous measuring of each teams abilities using power ratings and considering the daily news in each individual game.

The pre-season analysis includes mathematical and statistical analysis and determination of the changes caused by the transactions. The power rating database is always updated after each game and every published estimate is adjusted to consider injuries, fatigue caused by the schedule, different motivations and many other factors.

The pick is profitable in the long run only if the current price is higher than the estimate. Otherwise the bet is not worth placing.

 

[shrine]

u say "longrun".Im wondering how long is "longrun".Is it possible that if your not winning and this is shortrun -when does it turn to longrun.Is it possible that we won't see the longrun in our lifetime?Im wondering if this is the case then maybe cappers should take into account streaks,and other factors which have nothing to do with numbers?

Just a thought

 

[Mathemagician]

Excellent question, shrine!

Long-term track record is indeed the only way to find out how accurate the
analysis actually is. You shouldn't draw conclusions until the randomness in the track record become insignificant.

I would say a thousand-game record with a good profit should be enough to
convince anyone that winnings are no longer a matter of luck.
One weekend with a Win/Loss-record of 10-0 is not a long run. The predictive
value for the future is practically none with only ten games. This is the
case even if you happened to win all those 10 bets. And a record of one
hundred bets producing a little profit doesn't prove anything either.

Unfortunately, in practise it is not quite that easy to find a record that
long. In some sports there are too few games in a season to wait for a
record of thousand bets. It would simply take too many years. And also the
skills of the handicapper and the bookmaker can change in a time period that
long. NHL is a great league for betting since there are enough games to
realistically make over a thousand value bets in one season.

So, in some sports "long run" could be a lifetime, but not in NHL where
sometimes even a half season record might give you enough bets to draw the
conclusions of the profitableness of the analysis.